By Steven Dhondt (TNO)
On February 3, the H2020 GI-NI project will host its final conference. With inequality and skills development as central themes, the GI-NI project has been at the forefront of examining critical issues shaping our societies. As we approach this pivotal event, this blog reflects on the awarding of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson.
While Daron Acemoglu was widely anticipated to receive a Nobel Prize at some point—having already secured every major accolade in economics—few expected the award would recognise his work on economic history and inequality. This recognition places the study of inequality firmly at the centre of academic and policy discussions. It also underscores the immediate relevance of GI-NI’s findings.
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson emphasise democratic political systems as crucial engines for reducing inequality. Their thesis is that such systems foster institutions—secure property rights, strong states, and checks on power—that underpin greater equality and innovation. The authors advocate investment in these institutional frameworks and the promotion of “creative destruction,” wherein innovation thrives in a predictable and stable context.
How does this perspective align with the outcomes of the GI-NI project? GI-NI focuses on three transformative forces—technology, globalisation, and migration—and their impacts on inequality and skills development. Crucially, our research also examines the role of institutions in shaping these dynamics. A central question is whether these transformations are fostering convergence in social systems across Europe and beyond or exacerbating tensions within political systems.
While the laureates provide a vital framework, GI-NI complements their work by addressing dimensions they overlook. It is not enough to consider how democracies sustain innovation. We must also explore how globalisation, technology, and migration directly influence the engines of creative destruction—and by extension, inequality.
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson offer an important but incomplete picture. Their framework leaves critical questions unanswered:
1. Can “Creative Destruction” Be Bought?
Their focus on democratic systems as drivers of innovation does not address whether nondemocratic regimes can achieve similar results. For instance, can states like Saudi Arabia, which invests heavily in global sports and other high-profile ventures, effectively purchase progress and innovation? Does this strategy yield sustainable creative destruction? Meanwhile, the European Union struggles with lagging innovation investment—a trend that warrants deeper scrutiny.
2. The Overlooked Power of Globalization
The (creative?) destructive power of globalisation appears underestimated. Initially championed by the political left, anti-globaliaation rhetoric has now been co-opted by far-right movements, reshaping political landscapes. The new European Commission appears poised to navigate these pressures, relying heavily on far-right support in the European Parliament. But is this pragmatism warranted? And what does it mean for the broader goals of equality and cohesion?
3. Migration: The Missing Debate
Perhaps most glaringly, the laureates sidestep the contentious issue of migration. This omission leaves a critical void in their analysis. Migration’s role in shaping inequality and skills distribution is central to the GI-NI project, yet the Nobel-winning research avoids engaging with its complexities. Meanwhile, the EU itself seems to be adopting increasingly restrictive, “Trumpian” stances on migration, despite evidence from its own studies (e.g., OECD/European Commission Indicators of Immigrant Integration, 2023) suggesting that most Europeans do not favour such policies.
The work of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson provides a robust foundation but requires further elaboration to address these gaps. By engaging with the economic, social, and political implications of technology, globalisation, and migration, GI-NI offers a broader, more nuanced perspective on inequality.
Join the Discussion
The final GI-NI conference will delve into these critical issues, bringing together leading thinkers and practitioners. We invite you to join the dialogue—perhaps alongside future Nobel Prize winners?—and help shape the debate on inequality, innovation, and the transformative forces reshaping our world.