WORK PACKAGES

SETTING THE SCENE: FRAMEWORK, APPROACHES, METHODOLOGY

The analysis takes into account the evolution of the processes through which technological change, globalisation and migration are integrated in economic, institutional, political and socio-cultural contexts, including the needs and obstacles. For this objective, the project starts with developing the interdisciplinary integration of concepts and methods (political sciences, economics, sociology). The applied methodology connects micro to macro and will be using national and international perspectives on the topics. Focus is on realistic evidence-based policies that may challenge existing policies and have transformative potential for positively shaping the disruptive transformations. WP1 will:

  • Ensure the intellectual, conceptual and practical coherence of the project from an interdisciplinary perspective at the project start;
  • Provide a sound methodological underpinning for connecting the ‘deep dives’ to the macro-analyses of the different transformations and future prognoses;
  • Review existing relevant and new EU policy (for example, the European Green New Deal) at the start of the project to develop a first coherent policy framework and set of recommendations that build on and strengthen existing relevant EU and international policies. 

DATA HARMONISATION FOR INTEGRATED ANALYSIS

The general objectives are to contribute to the integration of measurement frames, to review available EU harmonised and national data sets focused on the issues of GI-NI and to combine databases at different levels for the needs of the project taking stock of the progresses made in other European projects. Data harmonisation for integrated analysis will:

  • Review how the key concepts of GI-NI are approached and measured in the available EU wide data sources;
  • Identify new measurement frames and methodologies used in national level data sources to tackle issues covered by GI-NI;
  • Provide guidelines for a harmonized use of data across WPs in GI-NI;
  • Provide EU datasets to analyse the interactions of globalisation, technological change and migration at different levels.

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION: IMPACT ON SKILLS AND INEQUALITY

The analysis takes into account the evolution of the processes through which technological change, globalisation and migration are integrated in economic, institutional, political and socio-cultural contexts, including the needs and obstacles. For this objective, the project starts with developing the interdisciplinary integration of concepts and methods (political sciences, economics, sociology). The applied methodology connects micro to macro and will be using national and international perspectives on the topics. Focus is on realistic evidence-based policies that may challenge existing policies and have transformative potential for positively shaping the disruptive transformations. WP1 will:

  • Ensure the intellectual, conceptual and practical coherence of the project from an interdisciplinary perspective at the project start;
  • Provide a sound methodological underpinning for connecting the ‘deep dives’ to the macro-analyses of the different transformations and future prognoses;
  • Review existing relevant and new EU policy (for example, the European Green New Deal) at the start of the project to develop a first coherent policy framework and set of recommendations that build on and strengthen existing relevant EU and international policies. 

GLOBALISATION: IMPACT ON SKILLS AND INEQUALITY

The main purpose is to obtain a deeper understanding of the differential impacts of increased trade and foreign direct investment on firms and workers in Europe. We will look into globalisation in different ways:fragmentation of production into different types of activities; global value chains; offshoring. Different types of impacts on workers are considered:

  • What is the impact on the composition of the workforce: are the impacts equally distributed?
  • What is the impact of staying in an occupation or moving to another industry and/or regions, given import competition? How does their well-being fare?
  • What is the impact of offshoring on the labour markets in countries receiving the ‘offshoring’ activities?

We explicitly consider heterogeneity in populations, regarding differences in education, occupation (often used as a proxy for having specific skills), gender, industry and country of occupation of individuals. We quantify and analyse conventional labour market outcomes such as job losses and wage reductions. We use macro-economic analyses (based on quantitative descriptions of the world production structure) to quantify impacts of the global value chain revolution for a wide range of European and non-European countries. The specific mechanisms that might cause these impacts will be investigated by means of microeconomic studies based on data for specific countries in the EU (Bulgaria, Hungary, Germany and The Netherlands).

MIGRATION AND IMPACT ON SKILLS AND INEQUALITY

The main purpose is to study labour market impacts of migration and labour mobility in the EU. The aim is to provide insights into how inequality drives migration, and how migration drives inequality. Inequality can take different forms: different promotion opportunities, occupational segregation or wage differences. We look into four directions:  

  • The relationship between skills and mobility/migration
  • The labour niches of natives and immigrants and segregation in the labour market
  • The occupational mobility and the changes on wages
  • The impact on the welfare state

The focus will be on Hungary, Austria, Spain and the Netherlands, and on the European level. The outcome is to deliver more insight into the micro-mechanisms of migration and mobility. 

ASSESSING EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET INEQUALITIES FROM DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES

The objective is to analyse the effects of structural transformations on labour market inequalities in Europe while considering different levels of analysis. Sector-level investigations capture mechanisms that escape firm-level data, such as market- expansion effects, while region-level analyses allow to grasp synergies built at the local level within ecosystems that link companies, educational institutions and regional policies. Macro-analyses cover intersectoral linkages as well as macroeconomic trends and institutional configurations. Each level of analysis provides a major piece to the puzzle of the effects of structural transformations on labour market inequalities. In particular we pursue the following objectives:

  • Clarify the roles of technological transformation and international trade in creating job polarization and growing inequality at the macro-level;
  • Investigate whether and to what extent structural transformations have exacerbated labour market inequalities through skill shortages and skill mismatches across European labour markets;
  • Analyse how immigration can help in closing skill gaps in Europe and how economic, political and socio-cultural institutions can facilitate this process;
  • Analyse the process of convergence/divergence with regards to the impact of structural transformations on inequality and assess the mediating role of institutional configurations.

FUTURE SCENARIOS: DESIGN, ANALYSIS AND OUTCOMES

The purpose is twofold: to design and analyse distinct future scenarios for Europe and the world, highlighting the joint effects of technological change, globalisation and migration on inequality and skills/jobs demand, and to identify credible repertoires of governance and policy change to anticipate scenario outcomes and proactively tackle future challenges into more favourable directions of shared prosperity. In overall the work envisages:

  • Designing a comprehensive set of scenarios highlighting future labour/skills demand and inequality, depicting the joint effects of technological change, trade/globalisation and migration/mobility.
  • Modelling and projecting scenario outcomes at global, EU and EU country block level.
  • Selecting 3 to 4 core scenarios out of the wider scenario set, based on qualitative foresight and quantitative scenario outcomes.
  • Identifying future challenges – barriers, needs and opportunities – and critical junctures for joint action at global, EU and EU-country level for each of the core scenario outcomes.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO REDUCE INEQUALITY

The objective is to propose priority areas and content for policy. It builds on the policy framework and consolidates the policy insights and lessons. It also mobilises and engages different stakeholders to discuss and formulate targeted policy recommendations, overall and for specific policy domains. We also look into issues of multilateral governance in the respective policy domains (labour/ skills, education/training, mobility/migration) and formulates ways how cooperation at European and international level could be achieved and improved. In overall we plan to: 

  • Identify policy and governance repertoires of change to target/tackle future challenges and to steer towards a more equal and wide sharing of the benefits of technological change and globalisation based on scenarios and empirical evidence resulting from the previous WPs;
  • Select and prioritise actions and recommendations for policy priority areas at different governance levels;
  • Enrich the policy and public debate involving relevant stakeholders;
  • Consider and deploy possible ways to co-design future policy and governance decisions with stakeholders, including civil society and the private sector;
  • Develop a Strategy Paper.