Our project partners from TNO have recently published new deliverables for the work package on Future Scenarios. These three contributions take a medium-term view of the three major transformations of our societies: technological change, globalisation, and migration.
“What does the future hold? The impact of technology, globalisation and migration on skill demand and inequality”, authored by Sandra Mathijssen, Daniëlle Bruel, Gerben Hulsegge, and Ruth van Veelen (TNO), aims to effectively address the challenges posed by inequalities and the shifting demands for skills. It underscores the need for policymakers to understand the intricate dynamics of technological advancement, globalisation, and migration, and to consider various potential future scenarios. Recent policy developments within the EU have focused on fostering equality, enhancing skills, and integrating artificial intelligence. These initiatives are pivotal for crafting an inclusive and prosperous future. However, questions remain about the adequacy of current strategies and whether new approaches are necessary to ensure a thriving future. This deliverable uses a ‘foresight approach’ to explore potential futures up to 2030 and outlines recommendations to address these challenges. By adopting these recommendations, policymakers can promote shared prosperity and mitigate labour market inequalities.
“Globalization and Digital Transformation: Are Impacts in Four Scenarios Converging?”, authored by Gerben Hulsegge, Steven Dhondt, and Marieke van den Tooren (TNO), explores the potential futures of globalization and digital transformation by analyzing the impact of four scenarios on socioeconomic inequality and skill mismatches by 2030. These impacts provide insight into the extent of economic convergence within the EU and between the EU and the global economy. Identified scenarios reveal that future labor market success depends on a balanced skill set, emphasizing digital, technical, analytical, and communication skills. Technological progress and globalization may exacerbate inequality, particularly affecting low-skilled workers, women, and older individuals, while high-skilled workers adapt more readily to market changes. Policy recommendations emphasize the importance of continuous learning, financial support for companies, resilience enhancement for vulnerable workers, proactive policy cooperation, and support for lagging regions.
“Future challenges to shared prosperity: barriers, needs and opportunities”, authored by Pascal Kampert, Daniëlle Bruel, Marieke van den Tooren, Ruth van Veelen, and Gerben Hulsegge (TNO), examines the implications of four distinct scenarios on inequality and skills demand within the European Union up to 2030. Key insights reveal that shifts in skill demands impact diverse groups unevenly in all scenarios, necessitating agile and adaptive reskilling and job-transitioning systems. Furthermore, economic resilience and inequality are closely linked, requiring policies that support small and medium enterprises (SMEs), ensure fair competition, and maintain economic stability. Effective integration of migrant workers can mitigate labour shortages and promote equality, calling for a directed European policy approach. The deliverable also emphasises the critical role of fostering stakeholder cooperation to implement these policies effectively, promote equality and address labour shortages and skill mismatches.